MACROECONOMIC TRENDS IN 2023
GENERAL ASSESSMENT OF THE STATE AND DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION In accordance with the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2035, approved by Government Order No 1523-r.
In order to stabilise prices for socially important goods, the Government of the Russian Federation has taken a number of measures to balance the respective markets: agreements with manufacturers and retail chains, subsidy programmes, and certain foreign trade measures.
Along with the challenges common to the fuel and energy complex, the sectoral risk factors in the electric power industry are low payment discipline of consumers in the retail electricity market and imperfections in the current model of relations and pricing in the energy supply sector.
FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE STATE OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY AS A WHOLE AND HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY
At the end of 2023, the average annual consumer price index was 105.9%, at the end of
Russia’s GDP for 2023 totalled RUB 171.041 trillion. The index of physical volume of GDP relative to 2022 is 103.6%. The GDP deflator index for 2023 against 2022 prices was 106.3%. The index of industrial production in 2023 compared to 2022 was 103.5%.
Another factor that determines the state of the Russian economy as a whole and has an impact on the power industry is the level of the key rate of the Bank of Russia, which increased by 8.5 p.p. in 2023: from 7.5% as of 1 January 2023 to 16% as of 31 December 2023.
FORECAST OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY AND THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY IN 2024
The development trajectory in
The following trends were incorporated into the Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2024 and for the planning period of 2025 and 2026 and the expected results of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2023:
- Higher level of world oil prices compared to the level projected in early 2023
- Weakening of the rouble against foreign currencies
- Low unemployment and growth of real household incomes
- Accelerated growth of investment activity
- Outstripping growth of manufacturing output, mainly due to machine-building industries
According to the mid-term macroeconomic survey of professional market analysts published by the Bank of Russia in March 2024, the 2024 GDP is projected to improve by 0.2 p.p. to 1.8%. Expectations for the average level of the key rate at the end of the forecast horizon are 7.5% p.a. (2026) and 14.5% for 2024. Consumer price index growth is expected to be 5.2% in 2024, 4.1% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026.
Used the data from:
Russian Statistics Agency website
Russia Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation